11/09/2008 Job cut, Consumer shrink, Hedge Fund Pain

Well, with more and more job cuts, the consumer spending will likely to be really bad, the data expected to come out on Friday. Here is the headline on marketwatch:

1."Retail returns to the 1970s
Sales likely to mark fourth straight decline for first time in decades "
"Worst retail sales trend since 1974 expected
Fourth consecutive month of declines seen; sentiment, trade data on tap."

2. Hedge fund managers 'funereal' in midst of crisis
"More pain expected, but some look for opportunities in 'rubble'"
"In the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, several top hedge fund managers sent a grim message to their investors in October: it isn't over. "

Although, some funds manager are buying because of the opportunity. I guess this is the fight between bull and bear then. Let's see who will win.

3. The Great Stimulus of China
"Over half a trillion dollars to be spent on major infrastructure projects, tax reform, housing and other items in effort to spur economy."
Our motherland start new "扩大内需“, building infrastructure again. China's economy has to be independent on US. Otherwise, it will never grow. Well, not sure "扩大内需“ is the permenent solution or just temporary boost. So many people need jobs... Anyway...

So, still , I didn't see any sign of turning around. We are still sliding downward. But the "predictive" stock market seems already sense the bottom will happen in next 6 month, and start going UP UP, and is about "AWAY"?
Question is, event if 8200 is the ultimate bottom, where can it go? 14,000? Or 20,000? Or just like the 70s?

Anyway, these question I will never have an answer, the only thing I can do is to watch.