But as stated in the SPY post, it has been up 50% in 6 days. A pull back is needed. Also, 10.6 is a strong resistance, a pull back at the level is very very likely.
So, Tuesday, I should make up the plan, if it would be down, should I buy or should I sell?
End of yesterday, I identified 8.5 is a strong support. All I am thinking is to buy on that support.
Why shouldn't I sell short at the beginning of today?
Why did I watch and waiting for it drop to 8.5?
Why didn't I ask myself, even it dropped to 8.5, it that a strong rebounce point? Currently, the long term trend is DOWN, the winning probability is in favor of short.
If I did buy at 8.5, today's close is 8.65. What will happen tomorrow? How far did I expect it to rebounce to?
But If I short at open around 9.1, things are much different, I can plan 8.5 to cover. Or I can hold it overnight. This would be a much favorable situation than buy on the weak support of 8.5.
Combine with overall market analysis, we should short starting from yesterday!
Anyway, now, what should we expect and what should we do?
At this level, we might have a bounce back to 9.1 level or even 10. I think we can prepare another short later. Or we should wait around 7 to buy on the stronger support. At this level, it is sort of in the middle. Win/Loss is around 50%. Let's just wait.
Remember: SHORT in DOWN TREND, and LONG on UP TREND is better. Counter Trend should be fast in and fast out.
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