今天，股市连续第四天疯涨，直接要冲击所有的重要阻力线。 我很不习惯这种突然的变化，我宁可把它看成创新低后的反弹，而不是因为基本面改变了。
也许，新总统有很多经济刺激计划，可是，那么多的lay off, 对市场的影响，就完全没有了？
这几天，量不断减小，可能是因为holiday的原因，也可能不是，看 不准。
下车早了，但是，这是双刃剑，经验不足，对天量新低反弹的力度，没有足够的认识。 而且，在trend没有真正broken的情况下，提前获利了。
关于卖出，应该采用trend信号， 而不是osilator, MA或者是Band可能效果更好些，在结合关键阻力位置，进行Stop的设置。
周五不用看盘了，等周一再看吧。 周日晚上，总结一下一些股票的图形，定一下下周的操作策略。
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
11/25/2008: EGY and XLE, Energy
Energy should bottom out. But the chart didn't confirm this. So just watch.
Friday, November 21, 2008
11/21/2008: 记住今天， 成功的catch了反转！记住
今天，是历史性的突破， 一定要记住今天。 最后一个小时的反转， 再次出现了Strong Right的信号，这次， 无论从时间，还是价格，成交量，都是巨大的。同时进了TIE和EGY，
TIE一直在看，基本上扬10%， EGY也是10%。 都大于大盘。 而距离上一个阻力位置，还有15%-20%的上扬区间。所以，要看大盘SPY能不能有效突破到85左右再掉头向下。
看图吧，图上都写了，这次的成功
1. 事先准备好了，如果反弹，应该如何操作
2. 对反弹的strong right信号，非常敏感， 马上反应了。
3. 对TIE， EGY，下单之前， 进行了STOP位置的计算，风险在3-5%左右，而上扬获利8-10%。 上扬概率很大。
好了，顺风顺水，成功了一次。
下面的问题，如何获得利润？
看下图，首先，计算了可能的阻力位置。 那么，EGY要看XLE， XLE要突破48， 还有10%要走，
TIE只好看SPY了， SPY也还有8%要走。 这是向上。 如果向上，将Stop Order 上移， 保证手续费。
如果下降，STOP还设置在原来的位置。如果STOP OUT， 进Ultra Short SPY， Energy， 和 Financial的ETF， 市场应该继续向下10%， SP500 去7000，DOW去7000.
记住今天！！！
TIE一直在看，基本上扬10%， EGY也是10%。 都大于大盘。 而距离上一个阻力位置，还有15%-20%的上扬区间。所以，要看大盘SPY能不能有效突破到85左右再掉头向下。
看图吧，图上都写了，这次的成功
1. 事先准备好了，如果反弹，应该如何操作
2. 对反弹的strong right信号，非常敏感， 马上反应了。
3. 对TIE， EGY，下单之前， 进行了STOP位置的计算，风险在3-5%左右，而上扬获利8-10%。 上扬概率很大。
好了，顺风顺水，成功了一次。
下面的问题，如何获得利润？
看下图，首先，计算了可能的阻力位置。 那么，EGY要看XLE， XLE要突破48， 还有10%要走，
TIE只好看SPY了， SPY也还有8%要走。 这是向上。 如果向上，将Stop Order 上移， 保证手续费。
如果下降，STOP还设置在原来的位置。如果STOP OUT， 进Ultra Short SPY， Energy， 和 Financial的ETF， 市场应该继续向下10%， SP500 去7000，DOW去7000.
记住今天！！！
Thursday, November 20, 2008
11/20/2008: 6年大底，破了！！！！
今天，2000-2002的熊市大底，终于被破了，意料之中，只是，来的时候，还是没做好心里准备，更没有做好trading 的准备。
对于trading, 一定要选符合trend的方向， 然后在support/resistance的area，进行相应的操作。要相信自己。如果，操作按照自己的计划，还是失败了，可以再分析原因。但是，一定要consistent.
其实，三大汽车的问题，也是知道的，甚至GM4.8的时候，都想防火烧了，可惜，还是没进行。继续观察，学习。
要像狮子一样，为好的猎物，耐心等候，机会总会来的。好好看看下面的三张图，都写在上面了。
对于trading, 一定要选符合trend的方向， 然后在support/resistance的area，进行相应的操作。要相信自己。如果，操作按照自己的计划，还是失败了，可以再分析原因。但是，一定要consistent.
其实，三大汽车的问题，也是知道的，甚至GM4.8的时候，都想防火烧了，可惜，还是没进行。继续观察，学习。
要像狮子一样，为好的猎物，耐心等候，机会总会来的。好好看看下面的三张图，都写在上面了。
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
11/19/2008, Dow破8000， 一些操作上的感想。
今天，做了写错误的操作，但是，坚定了原先的一些想法。
1. Always buy on support, and sell on resistance. We support break, it become resistance, sell the long position right below the support. We resistance break, it become support, cover short position right above resistance level.
2. Always clear about resistance and support, trend line. When trend is up, short should be fast, when trend is down, catch rebound should be fast. Because counter trend has more risk than follow trend.
3. Average down at the next support level is wrong. You can average down right below the support line for long position to prevent being shaken out, give yourself a second chance. But that is it! Then set the stop close the second entry place to cut loss short.
4. Follow the trend, Follow the trend!!!
5. Where is support? Previous lows that triggered rebound, previous volume congestion area, lower band trend line. What is resistance, previous high that trigger the reversal, previous volume congestion area, upper trend line.
6. Intermarket analysis. Use sector and SPY, DOW to check the individual stock's strength. Make sure your stock pick is stronger in the trend then the sector and whole market. Use BOND (TLT) to check money flow. When TLT suddenly go up, means money flow out of stock and goes to bond.
7. Should check other market strength indicator, such as AD, VIX, etc...
So many things. Look at the chart, see how many mistake you made, See what you did wrong and what you did right. Most important, after bought TIE, you start wishful thinking, ignored previous plan, wishing is will go up. Especially today, 6.95 is touched twice, give you the opportunity to cut the loss by selling on resistance, but you just hoping it will break the resistance and go up! Second time, a double top is about to form, so cut along the way when it is down, that is your last chance!!!
Alright, remember above words, those are not inconsistent. Instead, those words you know since you started learning stock for the last 2 month. But today you still failed to use what you learnt when you play the stock. No wishful thinking, ignore other people's opinion, just follow your own plan, your own judgement. Right or wrong, you will have a feeling!
1. Always buy on support, and sell on resistance. We support break, it become resistance, sell the long position right below the support. We resistance break, it become support, cover short position right above resistance level.
2. Always clear about resistance and support, trend line. When trend is up, short should be fast, when trend is down, catch rebound should be fast. Because counter trend has more risk than follow trend.
3. Average down at the next support level is wrong. You can average down right below the support line for long position to prevent being shaken out, give yourself a second chance. But that is it! Then set the stop close the second entry place to cut loss short.
4. Follow the trend, Follow the trend!!!
5. Where is support? Previous lows that triggered rebound, previous volume congestion area, lower band trend line. What is resistance, previous high that trigger the reversal, previous volume congestion area, upper trend line.
6. Intermarket analysis. Use sector and SPY, DOW to check the individual stock's strength. Make sure your stock pick is stronger in the trend then the sector and whole market. Use BOND (TLT) to check money flow. When TLT suddenly go up, means money flow out of stock and goes to bond.
7. Should check other market strength indicator, such as AD, VIX, etc...
So many things. Look at the chart, see how many mistake you made, See what you did wrong and what you did right. Most important, after bought TIE, you start wishful thinking, ignored previous plan, wishing is will go up. Especially today, 6.95 is touched twice, give you the opportunity to cut the loss by selling on resistance, but you just hoping it will break the resistance and go up! Second time, a double top is about to form, so cut along the way when it is down, that is your last chance!!!
Alright, remember above words, those are not inconsistent. Instead, those words you know since you started learning stock for the last 2 month. But today you still failed to use what you learnt when you play the stock. No wishful thinking, ignore other people's opinion, just follow your own plan, your own judgement. Right or wrong, you will have a feeling!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)