1/21/2009: Ossilator Time frame

RSI, MACD, STO, all have time frame.

RSI = 100* (1-[(avg_down_closs)N/ (avg_close)N]), 也就是说，past　Ｎ　day，　close up 越多，　ＲＳＩ　就越大。　反之，　ＲＳＩ越小。

ＳＴＯ是measure，　当天的close，　在过去Ｎ天的trading range的位置，　然后，　画两条ＭＡ来smooth, 在取difference。　

ＭＡＣＤ是两条ＭＡ的difference。　

Osillator的一个大用处是看超买超卖，　一个是用diverence.

一个要注意的是，　两个price上的peak之间的距离，要大于Osillator用的Timeframe.

最后是price上的peak往前的trend的时间，大于Osillator的time frame.

否则，　会把不必要的震荡带来。

1/21/2009: 又一次失败的trade

认为ＳＰＹ跌破了８２０，　开始新的一轮下跌，　但是忽略了已经跌了很多天，support也没有真正破掉。

ＸＬＦ破１１.5的时候，是跳空开在下面。以后要在support下面4%进场烧，或者resistance上面4%进场多。也就是有效突破。

另外一个，就是利空出尽，　ＩＢＭ的好消息对大盘有影响，　ＸＬＦ需要报复性反弹。

下一个点位，　８５。５－８６。０。　要坚决烧在８５。５，　ＤＴ，要lock profit.

1/18/2009: Good Prediction, Bad execution

Check 1/12/2009's blog, the plan and points are correct. But, I didn't execute the plan due to short of time and lack of confidence.

Now, let's analysis the market once again, see if we can be right this time.

For financial and oil continue lagging behind, SPY might stay in a narrow range, while other sector might have better performance. Close look at basic material, tech, since this might be the new President's favorite.

1/12/2009: Bad ER starts

People say stock market leading economy 6month. While, it can not even prepare for bad ER for one week eariler!!!

Bad ER is obvious, why Dec. keep up for no reason? But volume keep on the low side. Where is the money???

Anyway, SPY 95-86, 10% down. XLF from 12.74-10.7, 20% down. All this can be anticipated, but your action is strange. Trying to counter trend USO. Isn't that a wishful thinking? Yes. But the operation wise, it is ok.

Now, SPY' support is 85.5, 84 & 82. Close look on these level, 85.5, 84 can be used for DT. 82 can be used for swing.

Look volume, STO, RSI, confirming each other.

For USO, it should drop below 30, 28 may have a bounce.

For XLF, close look at 10.00, if break, then go to 9. 10 for DT, 9 for Swing.

For UYM, 12-12.5 is support, DT purpose, break 12, then 10, then 8. 10 for swing, 8 for swing.

No short now. Wait for oversold and buy on support for rebound.

1/09/2009: USO again, will HS still hold?

Operation is hard. How should we trust TA's possibility and take the loss when it turn back on us?

Are you planning dying for it? Or should we wait for up trend confirm to put money in?

How should handle the uneasy mind???

32 --> 33, confirm support and up trend, then down back to 31.2. Will trigger the stop. Should we buy around 31.5, set stop around 30? Then wait and see 30 rebound and cut meat on rebound level?

Or set stop around 27, this will be too much potential loss. It is really hard to maintain 4% stop loss and still catch the move.

1/7/2009: USO的HS bottom, XLF的Descending Triangle

USO正在形成Head Shoulder Bottom, 要密切关注，

XLF的Descending triangle也很明显， 要关注too.

1/07/2009: 炒股不易， 每笔交易无联系

有点震苍的行为， 其实， 92.5突破后，上攻95应该是可以预料的， 所以，stop的设置，应该想到95, 甚至是95.1. 但是，有一个tight的stop也行， 后来没有追烧， 就是想等到更好的入点， 而没有去看图上明显的95 resistance形成的island reversal, 尤其是gap down below 92.5的support， 应该追烧！

记住，每一笔交易没有联系，前面65卖的，不说明后面不能67买！

1/06/2009: Still Strong Bullish Market? TLT, UYM, XLE

Market continue to be strong. Looks like all major sectors are about to break the trading range and go up.

There are a lot of bad news going on. Housing sale, more lay offs, Madoff scandals, Gov print more moneys, consumer bankrupt rise..., but it seems that market just ignore the bad news and go up.

The volume also picked up, although still below 3 month average, but the continue grows in the last 4 trading session. Price up, volume up, should be bullish.

Also, Bond market dropped almost 10% from the all time high. I guess the money flow back to stock market.

Look at UYM, which is the basic material, strong up trend, also, XLE, the energy sector, didn't go down with oil prices.

These two sectors are strong, financial still in downtrend.

But, all sectors are in the upper channel line, STO continue to be overbought. A pull back should happen soon.


Pay close attention to Energy, Basic Material & Financial.

1/05/2009: USO up & XLF down

1/5/2009: SPY‘s up trend!

All in the chart.